🔗 Share this article

Within the immense confusion surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and Donald Trump's announcement that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, there is no doubt – this establishes a truly chilling precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of meddling, military incursions, and control in the region, but the recent overnight operation marked its initial significant armed assault on the continent of South America. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” Trump proclaimed.

The decision to unilaterally attack another independent nation and seize its president – just a short time after he openly looked for a diplomatic solution – carries even broader implications. This ought to concern everyone.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have suffered under an oppressive, corrupt, and inept government under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has indicated that the vice president, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected conservative dissident leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far struck a defiant tone – and other factions of the leadership-stricken government are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who was elected promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “not afraid of boots on the ground”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a rogue state.

He holds the view that the United States' strength allows it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the attacks in Nigeria and against Iranian nuclear sites. He asserts that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; the opposition party was kept in the dark and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the implication this carries to global powers like Russia and China, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, there were no American fatalities. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will almost certainly fuel further adventurism.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

It is widely rejected the excuse that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for related criminal convictions. Mr Trump himself has been explicit that he is driven by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his support at home declines.

A Muted Global Reaction and Institutional Irrelevance

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with a few principled deviations – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode highlights the institution’s growing irrelevance.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could potentially force him to focus on domestic issues once more – but rising medical costs, public anxiety over the economy and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

It has been less than 12 months into his time in office. World leaders may live to repent if they remain quiet at this juncture, considering the potential next target.