Starmer's Supporters Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Close associates of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a coordinated initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester-area MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable presence of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's planned resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the substantial expense and political risk of a subsequent mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he prompted anger within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a return to parliament to possibly contest the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several obstacles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any potential leadership challenge.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
Several sources also expressed concerns about Reform UK attempting to fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Democratic Concerns
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, sources suggested they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it untenable for him to continue in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his membership in an offensive online group.
