A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the basics. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
