Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline 37% Under the Sheinbaum Administration, Per Government Statistics

The mean figure of everyday murders each month in the country has decreased by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum began her term, per new government figures. But, public safety analysts have advised that homicide data might not signal better national security.

Marked Decline in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of almost 55 murders a day in last November as opposed to almost 87 when Sheinbaum began the leadership in September. This announcement was provided by the chief of the country’s federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The result in murders that we have seen over these past months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum stated, explaining that the previous month the lowest amount of homicides were documented for any single November in the last 10 years.

Historical Background and Government Strategy

Intense cartel internal conflicts, coupled with the government’s highly militarised campaigns to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in the past few years. The figure reached a peak of 36,773 killings in 2020, according to the country’s official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than the United States. However, murders have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 last year. Sheinbaum has credited her national security plan for an apparently more pronounced reduction in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state declared: “There is a plan, there is monitoring of the plan, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to persist at it daily.”

The central components of Sheinbaum’s security strategy encompass:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Advancing information gathering and investigative work.
• Increased cooperation between various departments.

Analyst Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

However, security analysts urged caution that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was misleading. This is especially true given the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive information if this were a reduction, but I think we shouldn't just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

As reported by the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders overall fell by over 20% in the initial 10 months of this year relative to the same period last year. However, disappearances have risen by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Numbers on murders is not reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the resources or the will to accurately recognize and classify corpses. Second, organized [criminals] … have the means to hide violence through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on month-to-month means of everyday homicides was similarly problematic because it may hide periods when there were notably elevated numbers of killings.

“Using the per-day average makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he stated.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Progress

Where the government can highlight the success of its safety strategy is on arrests and seizures. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for major offenses, according to government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics confiscated.

“The former US president can't accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical weakening of criminal groups. It’s highly in political terms advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Violence and Societal Anger

However in spite of these measures, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-fueled bloodshed. Last month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors killed in the last year.

Weeks later, thousands of protesters protested in Mexico City and across the nation to voice their frustration at graft and cartel violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s extremely problematic,” the analyst concluded.